Pivotal states confronting and accommodating iran
Pivotal states confronting and accommodating iran - Oralsexchat bot
Instead, they are going to have to guarantee Iraqi neutrality by giving the Sunnis a much larger slice, leaving the Kurds to get screwed yet again.Back in Washington, the Bush administration is looking at the Iranian withdrawal plan skeptically.
The negotiations are moving, and it is becoming more and more apparent that a consensus is emerging between Tehran and Washington over how the Iraq project should turn out.The United States does not want to provide al Qaeda with a fertile base of operations, and Iran does not want its ideological nemesis gaining ground next door and working against Shiite interests. Iran clearly states that the negotiations over Iraq cannot be separated from other regional issues and Tehran's nuclear file.STRATFOR has extensively discussed the nexus between Iran's nuclear agenda and its blueprint for Iraq.Iranian Offers The Iranian paper outlined several key concessions it would offer the United States and Iraq's Sunni faction if its demands were met. Iran would help the Iraqi government rein in the armed Shiite militias and incorporate them into the state security apparatus. The de-Baathification law can be revised to allow for the rehiring of former Iraqi army personnel, the bulk of whom are tied to the Sunni nationalist insurgency.However, Iran wants assurances that former Interim Iraqi Prime Minister Iyad Allawi and other former Baathists will not be allowed to hold the position of prime minister when the time comes to replace current Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki. Iran would be willing to see fresh parliamentary elections, the formation of a new Cabinet and the amendment of the Iraqi Constitution to double the Sunni seats in parliament to 40 percent, with the Shia retaining 60 percent.Washington is not exactly amenable to this idea, which is what makes this a major sticking point.
The United States already has made it clear that it is leaving the nuclear issue out of the Iraq discussions. Iran wants a new regional formula that would make Iraq a region of influence for Tehran.
After months of intense back-channel discussions, both sides have made a critical decision to bring their private negotiations into the public sphere, which means Tehran and Washington must have reached some consensus on the general framework of the negotiations on how to stabilize Iraq. The Iranians also stated that they would extend all possible assistance so that foreign forces could exit "honorably" from Iraq. Though this acts as a blocker to Iranian ambitions, the presence of U. bases also provides Iran with a stabilizing force placating the Sunnis and Kurds. Iran is essentially saying that Tehran and Washington have a common desire to see a unified Iraq. Iran is signaling that it is not interested in seeing Iraq get split up, even if such a scenario leaves Tehran with the second-best option of securing influence in a Shiite-dominated, oil-rich southern autonomous zone. Iran wants a plan, involving the Kurds and Sunnis, drawn up to root out the transnational jihadist forces allied with al Qaeda in Iraq.
Moreover, the Iranians are sending assurances to the United States that they are willing to cooperate so the Iraq withdrawal does not look like another Vietnam scenario for the U. Sunni tribes should also assume the responsibility of confronting jihadists, whether they are Iraqi citizens or are from other Arab and Muslim countries.
The Iranian proposal to expand Sunni representation is a direct response to these concerns, provided the relevant parties can actually deliver on their promises.
This is still highly questionable, though significant developments are already taking place that reveal the United States, Iran and various Iraqi players are making concrete moves to uphold their sides of the bargain.
While it does not appear that Iran explicitly stated this in its presentation, a majority of participants at the conference got the message.